Tuesday, September 27, 2016

VIDEO: Hannity & D'Souza Post-Debate Analysis

Donald Trump deserves credit for taking on taboos last night—like race and the mainstream media

VIDEO: Hannity & D'Souza Post-Debate Analysis

Donald Trump deserves credit for taking on taboos last night—like race and the mainstream media—that traditional Republicans are afraid to challenge. Many of these same issues are echoed in Hillary's America, and they can be winning issues if sufficiently pressed by the campaign.

Unfortunately, while Trump did call out Incompetent Hillary last night, he failed to sufficiently expose Crooked Hillary—thus not fully revealing her political gangsterism. In the future, he'll need to find a way to take the debate toward the Clinton Foundation, Benghazi, emailgate, and other issues the moderators ignore.

Watch as Dinesh D'Souza and Sean Hannity discuss:

Hillary's America is the perfect debate prep—watch it before this November and learn how to spot the lies Hillary tells on stage! Pre-order now to receive your copy October 11.

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So it WAS too good to be true

Everything You Think You Know About Stocks is a Lie

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ECONOMY & MARKETS | September 27, 2016

Income was Too Good to be True

By Rodney Johnson, Senior Editor, Economy & Markets

The Census Bureau reported that median income jumped 5.2% last year. As I pointed out last week, that's a solid increase, but still leaves us short of the record in 1999.

Still, something about the gains struck me as wrong. Even with cities, states, and some businesses bumping up their minimum wage, 5.2% seemed like a lot.

So I went digging. And the more I dug, the more disappointed and frustrated I became. As usual, the source of my angst was the federal government.

Long-time readers know my ongoing annoyance with the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) when it comes to unemployment figures and their birth/death adjustment. Now the Census Bureau is getting in on the act, estimating numbers where respondents don't give answers.

But the bureaucrats don't stop there. In addition to filling in blanks, they're also double counting income from previous years, and the problem is about to get much worse.

In previous surveys, respondents were asked if they held certain types of accounts or received different streams of income, including wages, interest, pensions, government assistance, etc. The details provided were pretty good, but the statisticians suspected they were missing some buckets of cash.

So in 2013 they tested a new set of questions, and compared the answers to the traditional survey. Sure enough, there was more money! By their calculations, incomes were a full 3% higher than had previously been estimated.

The median American family didn't bring in $51,939 as reported. Instead, that household actually received $53,514. An extra $130 per month could help a lot of families – from those with kids to retirees – make ends meet… if only it was real cash.

This $25 Trillion Bubble is About to Burst

The investment that triggered the Great Depression is at it again. And unfortunately, it's sitting in the portfolios of 81% of retirees over 65. It's not stocks or bonds, but they will both crash when its bubble bursts. Here's proof…

To arrive at the higher figure, the Census Bureau parsed questions on items like interest income to figure out if consumers held any interest bearing accounts. Then surveyors would circle back and ask respondents how much they earned on each account. If respondents didn't know, or refused to answer, the Census Bureau would ask the size of their assets, and then estimate the interest they should have earned.

According to their calculations, by changing the questions the number of Americans earning interest shot up from 86 million to 122 million, and the total interest received in 2013 increased from $187 billion to $387 billion.

The new calculation shows 41% more people earning interest, and 49% more interest earned. Imagine the government's surprise to find that we'd been holding out on $200 billion in interest income!

To put it mildly, I'm a bit suspect of the government's new estimate.

But I have a bigger problem with how they're treating retirement accounts, and what it means for future reports.

Using the old methodology, in 2013 the Census Bureau reported that one million people received income from a retirement account, totaling $18 billion. With the new approach, these numbers jump to 5.2 million people and $60 billion. The higher numbers make more sense to me, given that our over-70 population keeps growing, but all the funds withdrawn aren't income.

The government asks if funds withdrawn are reinvested elsewhere, taking care of that part of the equation. My issue has to do with the original money.

The survey counts as earnings all wages, salaries, and money from almost every source that isn't borrowed, or insurance proceeds before paying taxes, contributing to pensions, paying union dues, etc. So the money workers earn before contributing to a retirement plan is counted as income in the year it was received. And then it's counted again in the year it's withdrawn from the retirement account.

Hmmm.

With so many boomers funding retirement accounts over the years and now retiring in large numbers, this problem is going to get worse. We'll have the Census Bureau telling us that income is on the rise, when it's really just savers withdrawing the funds they contributed.

Interestingly, this is not how the bureau treats other accounts. Funds withdrawn from savings accounts aren't counted as income, just the interest is, which makes sense. The original deposits were earned at some previous point.

The obvious solution for the double counting is to calculate how much of the funds withdrawn from retirement accounts represent earnings and how much represents investment and interest income.

Obviously that's a big, hairy question, but hey, I'm not the one double counting, they are.

Then again, I'd imagine the government has no interest in a "solution." They've already found one. Their redesigned survey shows income moving upward and onward, and a positive impression is all that matters, right?

Rodney

P.S. No matter how you count it, millions of baby boomers face a retirement of penny pinching, as I explain in the October Boom & Bust. It doesn't have to be that way. There are things you can do now to boost the funds you have available in retirement. You're already ahead of the curve with your subscription to Economy & Markets. Take the next big step forward and read Harry's latest book, The Sale of a Lifetime.

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This work is based on SEC filings, current events, interviews, corporate press releases and what we've learned as financial journalists. It may contain errors and you shouldn't make any investment decision based solely on what you read here. It's your money and your responsibility. The information herein is not intended to be personal legal or investment advice and may not be appropriate or applicable for all readers. If personal advice is needed, the services of a qualified legal, investment or tax professional should be sought. We expressly forbid our writers from having a financial interest in any security recommended to our readers. All of our employees and agents must wait 24 hours after on-line publication or 72 hours after the mailing of printed-only publication prior to following an initial recommendation.

Friday, September 23, 2016

You’re Focusing on the Wrong Interest Rate

ECONOMY & MARKETS | September 23, 2016

You're Focusing on the Wrong Interest Rate

By John Del Vecchio, Editor, Forensic Investor

I am sick of hearing about the Federal Reserve. It's the Fed this. The Fed that. The Fed, Fed, Fed.

It's amazing to me how talking heads on TV practically hyperventilate on air mid-sentence talking about what the Fed might or might not do.

Everyone is so focused on interest rates. Too focused. The thing is, they're focused on the wrong interest rate.

While the federal funds rate has seen little movement and may not budge much for the rest of the year, three-month LIBOR is at multi-year highs!

LIBOR stands for the London Interbank Offered Rate. It's a really, really important interest rate.

Here's why…

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When investors borrow money and use their portfolio as collateral, the loan is often priced at LIBOR plus some base interest rate. For example, the loan might be priced at LIBOR plus 2%. These loans are NOT priced based on the federal funds rate.

Now that LIBOR is rising steadily to multi-year highs, these loans are getting more expensive to maintain.

Recently, I took out a LIBOR line of credit and used it to buy a house for my elderly father so that he could be closer to family and better attended to.

I've never used a line of credit before. I come from a family where I was raised to pay in cash. If I don't have the money and can't pay cash, then I don't get it.

No one gets rich paying 18% on a credit card with money they don't have for stuff they don't need. I have never paid a dime of interest on a credit card.

But this was a unique situation. I could access 60% of my liquid assets with a credit line and borrow the money very cheaply. It was way cheaper than getting a mortgage.

The other benefit is that this is cash, so when I shopped around for a house for my Dad, I could immediately make a cash offer. This leads to better deals because there are fewer contingencies. The seller will almost always take less.

Unlike most people, I also intend to pay off the credit line quickly. I gave myself a year to wind it down and in four months I have reduced the leverage by 60%.

That's not what most people do, and here's where it gets a bit sticky.

A major Wall Street firm extended the credit line to me. Yet, no one ever asked me what I was going to do with the money borrowed from the credit line.

I could have told them I need $500,000 because I'm going to Montreal for the weekend and I'm going to have a lot of fun!

The money would have been wired immediately.

That's a big problem.

You see, people with portfolios of liquid assets get access to these credit lines. That means people who own stocks. You often must have more than $1 million in stocks and bonds to get access to LIBOR-plus loans. They can buy a new house like I did or finance a large purchase of an illiquid asset by using their portfolio as collateral. These assets might be boats, planes, fine art, or investable wine. You name it.

The problem is, as interest rates creep up and more portfolios have been used as collateral to finance asset purchases, it could create a huge storm if stocks and bonds take even a minor dip.

If stock prices slide, the borrower could get margin calls. Then they have to sell stock. But, they also have to reduce their leverage because you can only borrow so much against the portfolio. The assets bought are often illiquid and can't be easily sold. So, everything unravels at once. This accelerates the selling pressure.

There are trillions of dollars of these credit lines that investors have tapped. Rising LIBOR and any sort of snafu in the market could be the catalyst for a major decline.

While everyone has their eye on the Federal Reserve, it's really the inching up of LIBOR that should be scaring market observers.

John Del Vecchio
Editor, Forensic Investor

P.S. Regardless of what brings the market down, the fallout will present you with some life-changing opportunities. Harry gives you the details of these in his new book, The Sale of a Lifetime. Get it now so you can prepare.

P.P.S. Join Harry on Facebook, Wednesday, September 28 at 11 a.m. EDT for a Q&A session. Be sure to send your questions to Harry via Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/EconomyMarkets/ or tweet @harrydentjr and use #saleofalifetime.

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I'm Concerned...

From the Desk of JL Yastine
Investment Director

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Wednesday, September 21, 2016

Important Update on the 2016 Irrational Economic Summit

ECONOMY & MARKETS | September 21, 2016

Dear Subscriber,

As I’ve said before, over three action-packed days this October, Dent Research will host its only conference of the year – the 2016 Irrational Economic Summit in Palm Beach, FL (Oct. 20-22).

Right now, a few deeply discounted Summit seats have opened up. They’re only $195 – that’s $700 off the regular price of admission.

By the time you read this they may be gone, so if you’ve been thinking about attending I urge you to click here now to see if any are still available.

I hope to see you at the Summit.

Sincerely,

Amanda Klein
Dent Research Conference Director

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This work is based on SEC filings, current events, interviews, corporate press releases and what we've learned as financial journalists. It may contain errors and you shouldn't make any investment decision based solely on what you read here. It's your money and your responsibility. The information herein is not intended to be personal legal or investment advice and may not be appropriate or applicable for all readers. If personal advice is needed, the services of a qualified legal, investment or tax professional should be sought. We expressly forbid our writers from having a financial interest in any security recommended to our readers. All of our employees and agents must wait 24 hours after on-line publication or 72 hours after the mailing of printed-only publication prior to following an initial recommendation.

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